When Donald Trump’s allies go on television claiming that gas prices will soon drop “20%–30%” thanks to a triumphant return to “drill baby drill,” they are leaving out the actual reason fuel prices are sliding, and it has nothing to do with U.S. drilling. In fact, the numbers tell a completely different story with fewer oil rigs, fewer natural gas frac crews, mass layoffs across the American energy sector, and an international oil cartel flooding the market at Trump’s request.
What to Know…
Trump’s 2020 OPEC deal strengthened OPEC’s control over global oil markets, setting the stage for today’s production surge that is driving down prices and undercutting American producers.
The U.S. oil and gas industry is not expanding but collapsing, with major companies cutting rigs, slashing frack spreads, and laying off tens of thousands of workers as OPEC floods the market.
Lower gas prices today are a short-term illusion, because once the weakened U.S. industry can no longer compete, OPEC is likely to slash production and trigger a future price spike timed perfectly to politically damage the next administration.
What’s happening now in the global oil market is not a resurgence of American energy dominance. Instead, it’s the delayed consequence of the 2020 OPEC+ deal Trump personally brokered, a deal that strengthened OPEC, weakened the U.S. shale industry, and handed foreign producers long-term leverage over American energy security.
And today, OPEC is cashing in on that leverage.
The Myth of Biden’s “Restricted Supply”
Before unpacking Trump’s role in the current crisis, it’s worth addressing the myth that Biden somehow “cut off all drilling permits” and starved the country of oil. The facts are simple:
- The U.S. issued more drilling permits under Biden’s first two years than under Trump’s first two years.
- U.S. oil production hit record highs under Biden, higher than at any point under Trump.
- Refinery capacity has not been “punished”; it has been squeezed by market consolidation, aging infrastructure, and planned reductions long predating the Biden presidency.
The real supply squeeze has nothing to do with domestic policy. It has everything to do with global decisions made years earlier, including by Donald Trump himself.
Trump’s 2020 OPEC Deal was a Lifeline for OPEC, a Noose for U.S. Shale
In April 2020, amid the COVID price crash, Trump intervened personally to negotiate the largest OPEC+ production cut in history. At the time, he bragged about arm-twisting Saudi Arabia and Russia into reducing supply to lift global prices, which did happen.
But the cost was enormous because the deal cemented OPEC+ coordination and gave the cartel unprecedented control over global supply. U.S. shale producers, who rely on specific price floors to remain profitable, were left exposed, while foreign producers were empowered to increase or decrease production strategically, not to stabilize prices, but to manipulate them.
And today, that manipulation is exactly what’s happening.
OPEC Is Flooding the Market on Trump’s Behalf
The irony of Trump-world claiming that America is “drilling more” is almost comical when you look at the data because U.S. oil rig counts are down 14% in the last eight months, frac spreads, crucial for completing wells, are down 17%, and every major U.S. energy company is shrinking, not expanding.
The layoffs are staggering, with ConocoPhillips reducing its workforce by 25%, Chevron and Halliburton are laying off 20% of their employees, and Schlumberger, Exxon, Shell, and others are cutting deep into their U.S. payrolls.
This is not what an oil renaissance looks like. This is what a coordinated international oversupply campaign looks like.
And by all accounts, OPEC is opening the taps because Trump wants cheaper gas now, political sugar for the present, economic poison for the future. Flooding the market lowers prices in the short term, yes. But it bankrupts high-cost American producers who can’t survive a price war.
Once the U.S. sector is weakened enough, OPEC will do what it always does: slash production overnight and drive prices right back up.
Today’s Cheap Gas, Tomorrow’s Price Spike
Here’s the playbook OPEC has used time and time again for decades, but never with as much leverage as Trump’s 2020 deal gave them:
- Flood the market → force high-cost competitors (like U.S. shale) to cut rigs, cut crews, and lay off workers.
- Wait until the U.S. industry is weak, underinvested, and demoralized.
- Slash production abruptly → prices skyrocket.
The timing is political, too. If history is any guide, OPEC’s price hikes will hit just after a Democrat returns to the White House, allowing Republicans to blame their favorite scapegoat.
And the cycle of disinformation will start all over again.
The Real “Energy Surrender” Happened in 2020, Under Trump
Trump’s defenders want voters to believe he is a champion of American energy. But the reality is he presided over the first decline in U.S. oil production in years, well before COVID, while also orchestrating the largest strengthening of OPEC’s power in the 21st century. Donald Trump helped create the conditions for today’s U.S. energy worker layoffs, and now he’s cheering on an OPEC strategy that puts tens of thousands of Americans out of work while helping foreign oil giants choke out our domestic producers.
There is no version of “energy dominance” where American companies collapse, skilled workers lose their livelihoods, and foreign petro-states dictate global supply.
Gas prices will fall in the short term, but not because of “drill baby drill,” and certainly not because of a surge in American production. They’re falling because OPEC, empowered by Trump’s own 2020 deal, is deliberately crushing U.S. producers with an oversupply campaign.
The workers losing jobs today are paying the price. And when the U.S. oil and gas industry is too weak to fight back, OPEC’s payday will come with price spikes timed perfectly for the next presidency.
And then, as always, the cycle will continue.