One of the most striking economic shifts between administrations is the sharp slowdown in job growth from 2024 to 2025. By the end of 2025, total job creation was down 70.8% compared to 2024, a collapse that cannot be explained away by partisan talking points or statistical sleight of hand.
Despite claims that the Biden administration “padded” employment numbers with government jobs, the data shows that explanation does not hold up under scrutiny.
What to Know…
Job growth in 2025 fell by more than 70% compared to 2024, driven primarily by a private-sector hiring slowdown rather than government employment changes.
Federal government hiring under the Biden administration accounted for less than 1% of total job creation and was largely tied to bipartisan legislation, not artificial padding of employment numbers.
Economists are increasingly warning that official labor statistics may overstate economic strength, suggesting the true employment picture could be weaker than reported.
The 2024 Labor Market Achieved Broad-Based Growth
In 2024, the U.S. economy added jobs across nearly every major sector. Hiring was strongest in:
- Health care and social assistance, driven by hospitals, outpatient care, and elder services
- Leisure and hospitality, continuing its post-pandemic recovery
- Manufacturing, particularly in advanced manufacturing tied to infrastructure and semiconductor investment
- Construction, supported by federally funded infrastructure projects
- Professional and business services, including engineering, IT, and logistics
Unemployment in 2024 remained historically low by modern standards, fluctuating modestly but staying near levels economists traditionally associate with a strong labor market. Wage growth slowed from its post-pandemic spike but continued to outpace inflation for much of the year, particularly for lower and middle-income workers.
Federal Jobs Are a Tiny Slice of the Picture
A common rebuttal to 2024’s strong job numbers is the claim that they were artificially inflated by government hiring. The facts tell a different story. Over Joe Biden’s entire four-year term, approximately 100,000 federal government jobs were added. That represents just 0.62% of all jobs created during his presidency.
Even more importantly, those hires were not an example of political padding:
- Veterans Affairs accounted for the largest share, largely due to the bipartisan PACT Act, which expanded health care and benefits for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits
- Department of Defense was the second-largest source of federal hiring – an area Republicans routinely advocate expanding, including proposals for $1.6 trillion in additional defense spending, which would inevitably require more federal employees
These government jobs added in 2024 were the result of laws passed by both political parties, not accounting tricks.
The 2025 Reality: A Steep Drop-Off in Jobs and Hiring
By contrast, job growth in 2025 slowed dramatically.
- Total job creation fell by 70.8%
- Private-sector hiring weakened across manufacturing, construction, and professional services
- Leisure and hospitality stalled as consumer spending softened
- Health care hiring decelerated as state and federal funding tightened
Unemployment began to trend upward, particularly among younger workers, service-sector employees, and those without college degrees. Full-time job growth slowed, while part-time and multiple-job holding increased, often a sign of economic stress rather than strength.
Removing Federal Jobs Changes Almost Nothing
Even if every single federal job created under Biden were excluded from the comparison, the overall picture barely changes.
The drop in job growth from 2024 to 2025 would still be 70.5% instead of 70.8%.
In other words, eliminating federal employment growth moves the needle by three-tenths of one percent. The collapse in job growth is overwhelmingly a private-sector phenomenon.
Growing Doubts About the Numbers Themselves
Adding to the concern is a growing chorus of economists warning that official employment and economic statistics may be overstating labor market strength. Key issues frequently cited include:
- Heavy reliance on statistical models rather than direct surveys when response rates are low
- Revisions that quietly downgrade earlier job estimates months later
- Difficulty capturing layoffs among contractors, gig workers, and small businesses
- Rising multiple-job holders mask job losses in full-time employment
Several economists have warned that if these distortions were fully accounted for, the labor market may already be significantly weaker than headline numbers suggest. Fed Chair Jerome Powell have warned that official U.S. labor market data may be overstating job growth due to issues with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “birth-death” model for estimating new business hiring, leading to potentially significant downward revisions and suggesting the labor market might be weaker, with actual job losses in some months, despite strong headline figures.
A Reality That Can’t Be Spun
The idea that 2024’s job growth was an illusion created by government hiring does not survive even basic fact-checking. Federal jobs made up a minuscule share of total employment gains, and most were tied to bipartisan legislation supporting veterans and national defense.
Meanwhile, the 70%+ collapse in job growth in 2025 reflects a real slowdown in hiring, rising labor market fragility, and economic uncertainty, one that may be worse than currently reported.
You can argue about ideology.
You can argue about policy.
But the numbers, even when adjusted, tell a clear story.
And no amount of spin changes it.