Voters in New Jersey are heading to the polls for a pivotal set of gubernatorial primaries, the first major political test for both Republicans and Democrats since Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024. With Democratic Governor Phil Murphy term-limited and out of the running, both parties are seeing crowded and contentious contests that could shape their political futures, not just in New Jersey, but nationally.
New Jersey is one of only two states with a governor’s race this year, the other being Virginia. As such, these races are being watched closely as early indicators of voter sentiment during Trump’s second term. A staggering $85 million has already been spent on advertising for the primaries, $75 million of that in the Democratic contest alone, according to AdImpact.
Democrats at a Crossroads
The Democratic primary is one of the most unpredictable in the state’s history. A 2023 lawsuit filed by Democrat Andy Kim stripped county parties of their power to assign favorable ballot positions, leveling the playing field and leading to a wide-open six-way race.
The central question for Democrats is one of direction: how should the party position itself after Trump’s surprisingly strong 2024 showing, including narrowing his margin in traditionally blue New Jersey? Voters are weighing electability, ideology, and leadership style.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill has emerged as a slight front-runner, leaning on her 2018 playbook of flipping red seats and her credentials as a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor. She’s faced scrutiny over corporate PAC donations and delayed stock disclosures but has addressed the issues and supports banning congressional stock trading.
Ras Baraka, the progressive mayor of Newark, gained national attention after being arrested at a federal immigration facility in a protest last month (charges were later dropped). The event boosted his campaign’s fundraising dramatically, positioning him as a late-stage contender.
Steve Fulop, mayor of Jersey City, has run a campaign sharply critical of the Democratic establishment and Governor Murphy, appealing to anti-machine voters and branding himself a “pragmatic progressive.”
Sean Spiller, head of the state teachers’ union, also claims the progressive mantle while facing criticism for being propped up by major union funding. His super PAC, Working New Jersey, has outspent all others with $35 million on the race.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer, one of the more moderate voices in the race, is focused on lowering the state’s cost of living and emphasizing economic pragmatism.
Steve Sweeney, the former Senate president, is leveraging his legislative experience and working-class background, hoping his South Jersey roots give him a geographic advantage.
Can Trump Pick the GOP Nominee?
On the Republican side, the race serves as a test of Trump’s political sway. Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who lost narrowly to Murphy in 2021, is widely viewed as the front-runner after receiving Trump’s endorsement in May. Once a Trump critic, Ciattarelli has since realigned with the former president, now calling himself “100% MAGA.”
Ciattarelli’s past ambivalence toward Trump, he didn’t campaign with him in 2021, was a sticking point for Trump, who publicly criticized him last year. But with the endorsement now secured, Ciattarelli hopes to consolidate GOP support.
Bill Spadea, his main rival, also sought Trump’s backing but came up short. Meanwhile, Jon Bramnick, a state senator and standup comedian, offers a sharp contrast as a vocal Trump critic urging a return to civility in politics.
Other candidates include Mario Kranjac, a self-described “forever Trumper” endorsed by Newt Gingrich, and Justin Barbera, a contractor with minimal public exposure.
Big Money, Big Stakes
This election is also a major test of the influence of money in politics. Outside groups have flooded the airwaves, particularly in the New York and Philadelphia media markets.
- Working New Jersey, the pro-Spiller super PAC, has spent more than $35 million overall and $12.1 million on ads alone.
- Affordable New Jersey, aligned with Gottheimer, has spent $14.8 million.
- Coalition for Progress, supporting Fulop, has spent $8.1 million.
- One Giant Leap PAC, backing Sherrill, has spent nearly $5.9 million in just the last month.
On the GOP side, Ciattarelli holds a financial edge, spending $6 million on ads, well ahead of Spadea’s $1.7 million and Bramnick’s $1.2 million. Super PACs have supported both Ciattarelli and Spadea but with less than $1 million each.
What to Watch
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. The Democratic primary will offer a window into which ideological path the party wants to take in a post-Biden era, while the Republican primary could reveal whether Trump’s endorsement still determines winners, or if cracks are forming in MAGA’s grip on the GOP. With millions spent and the stakes high, New Jersey’s primaries are about far more than just one governor’s race, they’re about the future direction of both parties.