Even if you’re not a supporter of Donald Trump, there’s a certain backhanded truth to one of the more cynical observations about his presidency: he managed to make China do absolutely nothing while costing Americans billions in the process. And that, arguably, is a kind of dubious achievement that no other president could have pulled off with such confidence.
From the outset of his administration, Trump framed China as a primary adversary in global trade. His rhetoric was fierce, promising to rebalance a relationship he claimed was one-sided and harmful to American workers. The centerpiece of this agenda was a sweeping trade war, built on tariffs and threats rather than diplomacy or policy reform. His promise? That China would pay the price.
But reality played out differently. What unfolded over several years was a tit-for-tat tariff exchange that led to higher costs for American consumers, massive taxpayer-funded bailouts for U.S. farmers, and very little, if any, meaningful concession from Beijing.
Billions in Tariffs, Paid by Americans
One of the most misleading claims from the Trump era was that “China is paying the tariffs.” In truth, tariffs are taxes paid by importers, usually U.S. businesses, which then pass those costs on to consumers. According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s tariffs cost American households hundreds to thousands of dollars annually in increased prices on everything from electronics to clothing to machinery.
And for all those costs, what did the U.S. gain?
A Trade Deal With No Real Teeth
After years of economic turbulence, Trump touted the 2020 “Phase One” trade deal with China as a major breakthrough. It was supposed to be the moment the U.S. got China to play fair. In practice, the deal was light on enforcement, vague in substance, and ultimately ineffective. China agreed to purchase more U.S. goods and improve protections on intellectual property but didn’t fully follow through. Independent reviews found that China fell far short of its purchasing commitments, especially in agriculture and energy.
China’s overall trade practices and state-backed economic strategy remained unchanged. The deal didn’t stop forced technology transfers. It didn’t curb subsidies to Chinese firms. And it certainly didn’t signal any fundamental shift in Beijing’s ambitions or behavior.
An Economic Own Goal
Perhaps the most surreal part of Trump’s China trade saga is that, in the name of protecting U.S. manufacturing and workers, it may have weakened both. Manufacturing job growth slowed, especially in industries hit hardest by retaliatory tariffs. American farmers, caught in the crossfire, required tens of billions of dollars in emergency subsidies to survive the fallout.
All of this happened while China weathered the trade war with a more insulated economy and quietly built new trade relationships elsewhere, including the world’s largest free trade agreement, the RCEP, which notably excludes the United States.
A Uniquely Trump Outcome
So yes, in a strange and costly way, Trump did achieve something few presidents could: he launched an aggressive trade war without meaningful gains, damaged sectors of the U.S. economy, strained relationships with allies, and walked away claiming victory despite the absence of any structural changes from China.
It was the diplomatic equivalent of setting a fire, charging the public for the water to put it out, and then declaring the scorched earth a win.
Even his critics might have to admit, there’s a certain kind of chaotic uniqueness to that.